What polls show about the Trump-Harris race ahead of the 2024 election
The polls can't tell us who will win. But they do tell some clear stories about the forces shaping the election and propelling Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Let’s get one thing straight: The polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a particular state.
The race is that close and uncertain, and polls in previous election cycles have been that far off the mark.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces shaping the election.
They don’t tell us who’s going to win — but we'll know that soon enough. What the polls can do already is help explain the forces that shaped this election and how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge victorious.
The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined 34-point gender gap, up from 30 points in October’s NBC News poll.
Rating: 5