When will the 2024 election race be called? Here’s what to know
Several key states are perennially slow vote counters. Others have invested in speeding up the process. But if it’s a very close race, don’t expect a quick resolution.
Americans have two big questions as they head into another election with a deeply divided electorate: who will win, and when will they know it?
In 2020, election week replaced election night: Joe Biden wasn’t declared the winner until Saturday. This year, it could go either way. It may take as long as a week for the NBC News Decision Desk to project a presidential winner, or it could happen as early as Wednesday, even by Wednesday morning.
The truth is the Decision Desk cannot know until election night which scenario will unfold, regardless of how carefully we have analyzed the polls, early vote, and other election-related data. The answer depends not only on how states count their votes but on the unknowable factor of how close the margins will be.
One thing is clear: The days of projecting a winner on election night itself are almost certainly over.
Projecting a presidential winner as early as Wednesday would require that the key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, are not essentially tied. There would need to be a large enough spread between the first and second place to be able to project a winner.
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