What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong
Polls weren’t perfect in 2024, but they were more right than wrong — especially given the polling industry’s challenges and recent misses.
With nearly all the ballots now counted in the 2024 election, we can fully evaluate the performance of the national and battleground polls this cycle.
The verdict: They weren’t perfect, but they were more right than wrong — especially given the polling industry’s challenges and recent misses.
Let’s start with the presidential horse race numbers. The final national NBC News poll had Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 49% each, while the national RealClearPolitics average of the two-way contest was Harris 48.7%, Trump 48.6%. And The New York Times’ average was Harris 49%, Trump 48%.
The actual result in the popular vote as it currently stands, which you can expect to change slightly amid the very last counting of ballots: Trump 49.9%, Harris 48.3%.
The 2024 national polls — on average — slightly overstated support for Harris and understated it for Trump. But they did turn in one of the best performances in presidential polling over the past decade, according to historical data from the Pew Research Center.
Rating: 5