A town-by-town snapshot of huge political change in one key state — and what it means in 2025, 2026 and beyond

New Jersey delivered some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election.

New Jersey delivered some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election. Now, those shifts are setting the table for this year’s hard-fought governor’s race — and raising big questions nationally about where communities like these are going in future elections.

For starters, President Donald Trump’s 2024 surge among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area caught much of the political world by surprise. But questions remain about whether Republicans can sustain this coalition long term.

An analysis of municipal-level election results in New Jersey, coupled with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, provides a detailed demographic and geographic snapshot of where Democrats and Republicans have grown their support fastest in recent elections. By examining changes since 2012 — the most recent presidential election without Trump on the ballot — a clear picture of shifting party coalitions emerges.

Support for Trump has exploded in densely populated, heavily nonwhite, formerly industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy and Passaic in the New York City metro area. Republican growth that was slowly developing since 2012 surged dramatically in 2024.

Kornacki: Trump's & Ciattarelli's different paths to GOP gains in New Jersey03:36Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have found growing strength in New Jersey’s shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and places popular with retirees.