What the November election results in one key state mean for the battle for the House

As both parties race to redraw congressional lines before next year’s midterm elections, Virginia represents one of Democrats’ best chances to blunt Republican attempts to pad their congressional majorities.

As both parties race to redraw congressional lines before next year’s midterm elections, Virginia represents one of Democrats’ best chances to blunt Republican attempts to pad their congressional majorities.

It’s unclear whether Virginia Democrats will be able to execute a high-wire act to successfully change their map for next year’s elections. Regardless, this November’s election results highlight how an energized Democratic Party could win back control of the House next year.

High turnout helped propel Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger in more Republican-leaning areas, and Spanberger improved on Democrats’ 2024 margins in the most diverse congressional districts, a new NBC News Decision Desk analysis of the governor’s race results showed.

Throughout the year, President Donald Trump’s strong performance in 2024 with nonwhite voters and younger voters has served as something of a baseline for Republicans who, at his behest, touched off a redistricting arms race that’s expected to continue into next year. The Virginia gubernatorial results, broken down by congressional district, underscore how quickly voters can shift from one election to the next and highlight some of the risks of the extraordinary effort.

Virginia’s congressional delegation is narrowly divided, with six Democrats and five Republicans. But last month, Spanberger carried not only each district her party holds, but also two Republican-held districts.