Steve Kornacki: Trump's 2024 gains in New Jersey hang over November's race for governor

The inroads that Trump made in traditionally Democratic nonwhite areas of New Jersey in 2024 have added an unpredictable variable into the governor’s race.

The surprising inroads that Donald Trump made in traditionally Democratic nonwhite areas of New Jersey in 2024 have added an unpredictable variable into this year’s governor’s race.

For Republican Jack Ciattarelli, they offer the tantalizing prospect of new support that eluded him when he narrowly lost the last governor’s race in 2021 — but also the possibility that he’s chasing fool’s gold if it turns out Trump’s gains were unique to him and nontransferable to other Republicans.

For Democrat Mikie Sherrill, there’s the hope that a return to the previous norm for Democratic candidates will halt further erosion of the state’s blue tint — but also a concern that there may be an additional and deeper challenge involving turnout.

While Trump did lose the state to Kamala Harris last year, his 6-point margin of defeat represented a massive step forward from the 16-point drubbing he suffered in 2020. This amounted to his second biggest state-level improvement anywhere in the country.

It was keyed in particular by dramatic growth in Trump’s support among Hispanic voters. Overall, 22% of New Jersey’s adult population is Hispanic, and there are 29 municipalities in the state that are majority Hispanic. Most have typically been core Democratic areas, but in 2024 Trump slashed his margin of defeat to levels practically unheard of for a Republican and flipped several of them outright.