Steve Kornacki: Two warnings for Republicans in the New Jersey governor results

Between the two gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, Virginia was supposed to be the lopsided one — and it was, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger crushing Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points.

Between the two gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, Virginia was supposed to be the lopsided one — and it was, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger crushing Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points.

But New Jersey looked like it was going to be a different story. The polling was competitive, and Republicans had nominated a battle-tested candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, who’d nearly won the governorship four years earlier. Recent momentum was on the GOP’s side, too, with President Donald Trump coming within 6 points of Kamala Harris there last year — a giant improvement from the 16-point Jersey drubbing he’d suffered in 2020. And Democrats were privately sharing alarm that their nominee, Mikie Sherrill, seemed to be wilting under the spotlight.

At the very least, this was going to be a close race, one that Republicans would be able to point to as proof that the national political climate wasn’t that bad for them. There was talk of New Jersey shifting away from blue bastion and into swing-state status. An outright Ciattarelli win didn’t feel out of reach.

But it was all a mirage. When the polls closed, the rout was on, and Sherrill walked away with a 13-point win, nearly matching Spanberger’s margin in Virginia.

It’s a concerning outcome for Republicans, because the two main ingredients in the Sherrill landslide have potential ramifications that extend well beyond the borders of New Jersey.