Chuck Todd: The 2024 election careens into its final, uncertain days
In many ways, the final week of a presidential campaign — for those of us who cover presidential politics — is akin to being in the eye of a hurricane.
In many ways, the final week of a presidential campaign — for those of us who cover presidential politics — is akin to being in the eye of a hurricane. There’s an eerie calm that you know is about to disappear, but the anticipation is agonizing. There’s not a lot more to report or unearth. All you can do is wait (and continue to prepare).
That preparation includes running through every potential outcome and thinking about how the campaign might get there. For the purposes of this exercise, I want to essentially brain-dump everything I’m thinking about how this campaign could end and let that serve as a guide for how I’m watching the final days — and what I’ll be looking for on election night (or week).
For me, this endgame feels more like 2000 and 2004 than like any of former President Donald Trump's previous elections (2016 and 2020). Why do I say that? For one thing, the polls are indicating a much closer race this time than in 2016 or 2020. The last time the polls were collectively this close in the final month of a campaign was during George W. Bush's two successful presidential elections.
And I’d argue that in both of Bush’s elections, but 2000 especially, the campaigns ended in a sort of draw, in that both parties split the battleground states, rather than their being swept by one candidate. From 2008 through 2020, the winning candidate either swept or nearly swept the final six to eight battleground states.
This year, one could easily see the seven core battlegrounds splitting fairly evenly.
Rating: 5