Chuck Todd: This Democratic defeat — and the rise of Trump 2.0 — was a decade in the making
There’s something about an election that is both cleansing — especially for my pre-Election Day email inbox — and, most importantly, clarifying.
There’s something about an election that is both cleansing — especially for my pre-Election Day email inbox — and, most importantly, clarifying.
It’s also the ultimate test of lots of theories of the case — all sorts of them. Which gender gap would matter more? Which side had the best campaign tactically? Which one had the better message? How much does the basic fundamental rule of politics — the perceived state of the economy — trump everything? What matters more: class or identity?
Small shifts of the electorate, which turn defeats into victories and vice versa, can either shatter or cement various pieces of conventional wisdom based on the various theories of what moves the electorate in one direction or the other.
A triumphant Donald Trump speaks at an election night event in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Wednesday morning.Devin Yalkin for NBC NewsThe real trick to any postelection analysis is to both respect the result and the voice of the voters in the moment while simultaneously realizing that what happens in one election doesn’t always mean it’s cemented conventional wisdom in perpetuity. After all, how many smart people post-2020, especially post-Jan. 6, 2021, who thought that was going to end Trump (and Trumpism with it) look pretty dumb today?
The reality is that both parties learn lessons from losing elections that apply only in the short term — say, from one presidential election to the next midterm or from one midterm to the next presidential election. But those lessons have shelf lives, and the problem with a lot of career political strategists (and yes, career political journalists!) is that we all can get trapped or captured by a trend that matters for two to six years but becomes obsolete soon after.
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