Inside the poll numbers: Which key groups have moved — and which ones haven't — since Biden's exit
Young voters, Black voters and female voters have all moved significantly since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden in the 2024 race. Latinos, seniors and independents have stayed relatively still.
Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, 49%-44%, in the new national NBC News poll.
While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, it does represent a shift from the last NBC News survey, when President Joe Biden was still in the 2024 presidential contest. In that July poll, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 points, 45% to 43%.
The new poll shows the key voting blocs that have moved — and those that haven’t really budged — since Biden’s exit.
The biggest change is among young voters ages 18 to 34, who were essentially split between Biden and Trump in July but who now back Harris by 23 points, 57%-34%.
The share of Black voters supporting the Democratic ticket has also increased, from Biden’s 57-point advantage in July to a 78-point lead for Harris in this new poll.
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