Polls show a changed, close 2024 race heading into Labor Day
Two words sum up the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with fewer than 10 weeks to go until Election Day: changed and close.
Two words sum up the national and battleground state polls released ahead of Labor Day weekend, with fewer than 10 weeks to go until Election Day: changed and close.
Changed, because most of the surveys — conducted after President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 race, after the Democratic convention, and after independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed former President Donald Trump — show Vice President Kamala Harris with narrow leads nationally and in key battlegrounds.
That’s compared with polling that mostly showed Trump with a narrow edge before Biden’s departure.
And close, because almost all of Harris’ leads are within the polls’ margins of error. And given the polling errors of 2016 and especially 2020, a candidate holding a 1-, 2-, or 3-point advantage in surveys doesn’t guarantee victory — far from it.
Nationally, almost every recent survey shows Harris doing better than Trump by a handful of points. The latest Wall Street Journal poll finds Harris getting support from 48% of registered voters, while Trump gets 47%, well within the poll’s margin of error. The previous Wall Street Journal poll, conducted immediately after Biden’s exit, had Trump ahead by 2 points, 49% to 47% — again within the margin of error.
Rating: 5