How a Trump conviction changes the 2024 race in our latest poll
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 5 in NBC News' poll — but when the survey re-asks voters' choice if Trump is convicted of a felony, Biden narrowly pulls ahead.
The newest national NBC News poll shows former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47%-42%, in a hypothetical general-election matchup.
But when the survey’s final question re-asks voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump, 45%-43%.
Some of the most pronounced shifts come among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but among whom he is struggling now as president — younger voters, Latinos and independents.
On the original ballot, Biden and Trump are tied 42%-42% among voters ages 18 to 34. But when these voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, they break for Biden by 15 points, 47%-32%.
Similarly, Latinos go from Trump 42%, Biden 41% on the first ballot — to Biden 45%, Trump 35% on the second one asking the hypothetical question about Trump’s conviction.
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