How House Republicans' big tax and spending vote will shape the next election

House Republicans just passed a sweeping bill to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda — legislation that will now play a major role in shaping the fight over who controls the House after the next election.

House Republicans just passed a sweeping bill to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda — legislation that will now play a major role in shaping the fight over who controls the House after the next election.

Democrats need a net gain of just three seats next year to take back control of the chamber, after the GOP won the smallest House majority in almost 100 years in the last election. Democrats have spent months warning Republicans of the attacks to come over the bill — accusing the GOP of slashing Medicaid and health care coverage for millions, prioritizing wealthy people over Americans more in need — and have already started peppering the airwaves with ads in an attempt to burn in that message early. 

But Republicans are betting that the measure, which Trump has dubbed “one big beautiful bill,” holds the key to proving to American voters why they should grant them two more years of unified control of Washington, as opposed to the midterm backlash that typically hits a president's party. The GOP sees a bill that could energize Trump supporters by enacting his agenda and delivering key swing-state lawmakers some tangible victories to tout on the campaign trail. 

“The American people gave us a mandate in November. They sent a message with their vote. They gave this side of the aisle the power, and we're going to use it to make their lives better,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said right before the bill passed.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., sounded a different note Thursday morning: “When the votes are ultimately cast on that first Tuesday in November next year, this day may very well turn out to be the day that House Republicans lost control of the United States House of Representatives.”