How New Jersey's verdict on Trump and one other leader is shaping the governor's race

Donald Trump looms over the New Jersey governor's race. But the results will also be tied to how voters in New Jersey view another politician: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

Recent public polling in the New Jersey governor’s race has shown Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by varying degrees. Like many campaigns in the last decade, President Donald Trump and voter perceptions of his performance have loomed over this race.

But Sherrill’s lead also appears to be tied to how voters in New Jersey view another politician: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

Kornacki: Trump's & Ciattarelli's different paths to GOP gains in New Jersey03:36Polls conducted in recent weeks have not tested Murphy’s job approval rating, but a Fox News survey conducted Oct. 10-14 found 47% of voters had a favorable view of the two-term governor, while 49% had an unfavorable view of him. Sherrill led Ciattarelli in that survey by 5 points, within the poll’s margin of error.

In the handful of public polls that did test Murphy’s job approval during the fall campaign, the three surveys that showed Murphy with an approval rating in the high 40s also saw Sherrill build bigger leads. In two surveys putting Murphy’s job approval at 35%, including one that was conducted for Ciattarelli’s campaign, the gubernatorial results showed a tied or near-tied race — the best results Ciattarelli has enjoyed in the whole campaign.

The shift depending on Murphy’s approval rating underscores how views of the current two-term administration could be a key factor in the race.