Chuck Todd: Why the next six weeks could be the critical stretch of the 2024 election
The next six weeks should tell us a lot about how much a sustained anti-Donald Trump advertising campaign can move his (and Joe Biden's) poll numbers.
Super Tuesday and President Joe Biden’s coming State of the Union are serving as the cues this week for campaigns and the media to declare the official start of the general election.
It’s the matchup voters have dreaded the most, and yet, they are going to get it. The negativity both in paid and unpaid media is going to be sky-high. This isn’t going to be an election for the faint of heart: It’s going to be nasty, it’s going to be personal, and violence is more probable than most would want to admit. In short, it’s going to be the most anticipated contentious election since at least 1968 — and I use “anticipated” because both the 2000 and the 2016 elections became contentious only in the aftermath.
By the time the two campaigns are done pummeling each other, I suspect Trump supporters are going to assume Biden is at death’s door, while Biden supporters are going to assume the Constitution will be suspended the day of a second Trump inauguration.
The real question, of course, is which negative attacks will actually stick in the minds of voters who aren’t hard partisans and aren’t predisposed to assume the worst about both candidates. What we do know is that these swing voters don’t like former President Donald Trump’s personality or character and they are concerned about Biden’s physical abilities (which may also really mean they have a confidence issue in Vice President Kamala Harris).
The next six weeks should tell us a lot about how much a paid anti-Trump media campaign can move Biden’s numbers. Given the financial advantage Biden enjoys over Trump, it would be malpractice if the Biden campaign didn’t try to press that advantage immediately. Right now, this campaign has a “referendum on Biden” vibe to it, a fairly natural occurrence at this point in an incumbent’s re-election effort. The challenger — in this case Trump — is the one constantly on the trail and in the news, and his victories are giving him a bit of a “winner’s” halo effect that many a presumptive nominee has enjoyed.
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