How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Close elections always come down to turnout.
Close elections always come down to turnout. And while there remain a lot of unknowns ahead of November’s presidential election, one thing seems almost certain: It’s going to be close, at least in many of the key states that will decide the election.
So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment.
What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party versus one that favors the GOP?
The results won’t be much of a surprise. But the exercise is instructive, showing how relatively small shifts in the demographic makeup of the electorate could prove important in a close election.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at 48% each.
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