Cubans brace for even more economic devastation amid threat of no Venezuelan oil

Cuba’s economy, already in a deep crisis, will likely spiral even further.

HAVANA — The ripple effects from the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday could make their way quickly here, devastating this island that has been in a yearslong economic crisis.

Following the dramatic operation that ousted Maduro in the dead of night, President Donald Trump suggested Cuba’s government will fall, something reiterated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Since the rise of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba has depended heavily on Venezuela for subsidized oil in exchange for Cuban medical professionals, military advisers, security forces and others. Without Venezuelan oil, Cuba’s economy, which is already in a deep crisis, will likely spiral even further.

“If oil supply were to cease entirely, the Cuban economy would grind to a halt,” said Pavel Vidal, a former Cuban central bank economist who teaches at Javeriana University in Colombia. “This would represent a devastating blow to a Cuban economy already in recession for six years and lacking the productive capacity, competitiveness and foreign currency to replace these flows.”

In Cuba, where everyday people are accustomed to the dire economic situation, many are bracing themselves for even tougher conditions following the U.S. actions in Venezuela. The island and its government survived the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s when its economy shrank by roughly 30%.