India-Pakistan conflict: How real is the risk of nuclear war?

Recent hostilities were a reminder of how easily a crisis could escalate into catastrophe.

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Yet the cycle of military retaliation, veiled signals and swift international mediation quietly evoked the region's most dangerous shadow. The crisis didn't spiral towards nuclear war, but it was a reminder of how quickly tensions here can summon that spectre.

Even scientists have modelled how easily things could unravel. A 2019 study by a global team of scientists opened with a nightmare scenario where a terrorist attack on India's parliament in 2025 triggers a nuclear exchange with Pakistan.

Six years later, a real-world stand-off - though contained by a US-brokered ceasefire on Saturday - stoked fears of a full-blown conflict. It also revived uneasy memories of how fragile stability in the region can be.

As the crisis escalated, Pakistan sent "dual signals" - retaliating militarily while announcing a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting, a calculated reminder of its nuclear capability. The NCA oversees control and potential use of the country's nuclear arsenal. Whether this move was symbolic, strategic or a genuine alert, we may never know. It also came just as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly stepped in to defuse the spiral.