Who will succeed Pope Francis? How the papal conclave will choose the next pope

Dust off the history books and there are papal conclaves with international intrigue, royal rigging and even riots, a checkered past that belies the air of sanctity and solemnity surrounding modern papal elections.

Dust off the history books and there are papal conclaves with international intrigue, royal rigging and even riots, a checkered past that belies the air of sanctity and solemnity surrounding modern papal elections.

The word “conclave” comes from the Latin for “with key.” It is a church tradition that began in 1268 with a papal election that lasted almost three years, ending only when the townspeople of Viterbo locked up the cardinals, tore the roof off their palace, fed them nothing but bread and water and threatened them until a new pope was chosen.

While it is very unlikely the decision on Pope Francis’ successor will take quite as long or be quite as contentious, Vatican watchers agree that the winner is not a foregone conclusion.

“The great joy of the conclave is that nobody really knows and it’s such a unique electorate,” James Somerville-Meikle, the former deputy director of the Catholic Union of Great Britain, told NBC News before Francis’ death. “So many conclaves in the past have thrown up surprises.”

The College of Cardinals, he said, has always been faced with two questions: “Do we try something new? Do we go for continuity?”