Steve Kornacki on a tightening Senate primary in New Hampshire

The open seat is a top target for national Republicans in November, though Democrats are currently favored.

Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In today’s edition: Why Republicans believe they have a shot at a Senate seat in New Hampshire. Let’s dive in.

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