Kentucky Derby 2025: Steve Kornacki's guide for horses to watch, best storylines, favorites to win and more

Steve Kornacki: This year's Kentucky Derby features a handicapping puzzle, with the possibility of a wild result and a nice payday for those who can figure it out.

From a drama standpoint, the 151st Kentucky Derby has a tough act to follow after last year’s three-way photo finish. But Saturday’s edition features an intriguing handicapping puzzle, with the possibility of a wild result and a nice payday for those who can figure it out. 

I’d love to be one of them, and while my track record makes me something far less than an authority on these matters, here are a few angles that I’m looking at.

His name is Journalism and he towers above the field in at least one notable metric: speed figures. For every race that’s run across the country, each horse is assigned a Beyer speed rating, based on an algorithm designed to flatten out variances between different race lengths and track conditions. The higher the number, the better the horse. 

In one of the two key Kentucky Derby prep races he won in Southern California, Journalism posted a Beyer of 108, tops of anyone in this field. Having the best Beyer doesn’t automatically translate to victory, but notably in last year’s running, the top four finishers were all horses who came in with among the five highest Beyers in the field. 

The knock on Journalism? He put up those numbers against tiny fields — just four rivals in each of those races. In the Kentucky Derby he’ll be facing 19 foes and vastly more traffic than he’s ever had to contend with.