'Gruesome' war bets fuel calls for Kalshi Polymarket crackdown

Predictions markets have hosted millions of dollars of bets related to the war in Iran.

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But just a few weeks ago, after spotting reports of elevated pizza deliveries around the Pentagon during some late-night scrolling, he made a different kind of bet - wagering $10 (£7.50) on the odds that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "out" by 1 March.

It was a trade that tested the limits of the kinds of bets Americans are allowed to make.

So-called predictions markets - overseen by firms such as Kalshi - have exploded in popularity over the last year, hosting more than $44bn in trades.

They are rapidly transforming the betting landscape in the US, where sports betting was largely illegal until 2018 and gambling on elections had been off-limits until 2024.