How Pennsylvania's mail ballot rules will lead to thousands of provisional ballots on Election Day

Last week, a flurry of litigation in Pennsylvania clarified the rules for mail balloting there.

Last week, a flurry of litigation in Pennsylvania clarified the rules for mail balloting there. In short, mail ballots will still be rejected in the key battleground state if voters fail to properly date the affidavits that accompany their ballots — but voters who make any mistake with their mail ballots will be able to vote by provisional ballot instead on Election Day.

The NBC News Decision Desk examined how many mail ballots remain outstanding in the state, as well as how many counties have already identified as deficient. In the event of a close race in Pennsylvania, provisional ballots and their counting will get a lot of attention after Tuesday night.

Voters with outstanding mail ballots will need to ensure that election officials receive them by 8 p.m. Tuesday for them to count. But voters with outstanding or deficient mail ballots can also go to their polling places to vote in person.The data make it clear that most provisional ballots are likely to come from voters with outstanding mail ballots, rather than voters who’ve already returned deficient mail ballots. And they also make it clear that those provisional ballots may favor Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.

Overall, about 2.2 million Pennsylvanians have had approved mail ballot applications, according to public data from the state secretary of state. So far, about 82% have returned their mail ballots, according to the latest figures Monday. That means roughly 390,000 mail ballots are outstanding. 

If Pennsylvania’s 2024 election follows the same trend we observed in 2022, that means about 150,000 more mail ballots will arrive in time to be counted, via either the mail or drop boxes. The remaining people with outstanding mail ballots will need to vote in person on Election Day to have their votes count. If these voters show up and surrender their mail ballots, they could vote with regular ballots; if they do not, they’ll vote with provisional ballots, which election officials will count only after they confirm the initial mail ballots were not counted. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/pennsylvanias-mail-ballot-rules-will-lead-thousands-provisional-ballot-rcna178746


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