U.S. and Iran say they don't want a war, but the risks are mounting as Biden readies retaliation
After months of attacks and spiraling tensions in the Middle East former officials warn the two countries may be sleepwalking toward conflict.
Both the U.S. and Iran say they don’t want an all-out war. But after months of attacks and spiraling tensions in the Middle East — culminating in the killing of three American soldiers in a drone strike by Tehran-backed militants — former officials and analysts from the West warn the two countries may be sleepwalking toward conflict.
Sunday’s attack in Jordan was the first time American personnel have been killed in strikes from Iran’s proxies fired in response to Israel’s war in Gaza. President Joe Biden has vowed retaliation — but who the U.S. targets is as yet unclear. More hawkish voices are concerned that a response that’s too weak could fail to stop the mounting threat to American interests; other regional observers fear that a stronger retaliation could be the spark that sets off a wider war.
“The U.S. is in danger of slow-walking itself into a war with Iran,” said Thomas Shannon, former U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, the third-highest role in the State Department.
Though Iran itself may not want a war, experts say it has been able to use its militias to challenge American and Western interests in the region without getting directly involved.
While often keeping its language vague, Iran says it has no sway over these groups’ decision-making, and Western experts agree it’s unclear to what extent Tehran has direct control over these forces. Partly because of this ambiguity, the risk of miscalculation and escalation is huge, said Shannon, who has worked in a variety of senior roles under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
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