Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo's shocking trade fight timeline

The economic impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.

The economic impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Source: Apollo Global Management

To support the idea that the U.S. economy is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data that shows new orders for business, earnings outlooks and capital spending plans have all fallen sharply in recent weeks.