Kentucky Derby 2024: Horses to follow, winner predictions from Steve Kornacki
The final countdown to Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby is truly underway, which means it’s crunch time for those making an effort to pick a winner.
The horses are entered, the post positions are drawn, and the morning line is set. The final countdown to Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby is truly underway, which means it’s crunch time for those — present company very much included — hoping to dazzle our friends (and maybe fatten our wallets) by picking the winner.
Sifting through this massive field of 20 horses, all of them still-developing 3-year-olds and many of them with just a few starts under their belts, presents an enticing challenge whether you’re a veteran horseplayer or a casual fan.
There are countless ways to handicap the Derby. What follows are a few data points, trends and angles that may (hopefully) help shape your thinking and sharpen your opinions about this year’s Run for the Roses.
Two important notes: There are several references here to the Derby qualifying system implemented in 2013. It’s an important reference point, because it altered the basic structure of the race.
Before 2013, Derby slots were allotted based simply on money won in any kind of stakes races; that allowed horses who weren’t natural Derby fits (short-distance sprinters, for instance) to make it in and distort the dynamics of the race.
Rating: 5