House vote on health care, drug prices might not help voters

Congressional Democrats vote on Medicare, drug prices, climate in Inflation Reduction Act. But the bill might not help voters.

Congressional Democrats are on the precipice of achieving their long-standing goal of empowering Medicare to essentially set the prices of some drugs. While the political significance is undeniable, the ultimate implications for consumers and drug markets are far more uncertain than many supporters (and detractors) are implying.

It will be years before we understand exactly how much the legislation has changed the landscape of American health care.

The Inflation Reduction Act, being voted on by the House Friday before being sent to the president’s desk, includes a host of changes to health care coverage, climate policy and tax policy. Among the health provisions stands a crown jewel — a provision allowing Medicare to regulate the prices of some drugs. Its inclusion represents a political victory for Democrats, who have pushed for some version of this policy since the Clinton era.

Unsurprisingly, this provision has been contentious. To some drug manufacturers, rate setting by Medicare represents “a tragic loss for patients,” as they warn it will upend drug innovation. Democrats and advocacy groups, on the other hand, argue it risks little and is necessary to combat the pharmaceutical industry’s greed. It is easy to suggest the truth lies somewhere in between, but it is much harder to say where. 

Legal, political and economic uncertainties make it very difficult to predict what this new authority will ultimately mean for drug prices and for consumers. Which is why Americans should be wary of politicians’ promises about how this will affect our wallets and our health.