Every NFL team wants a good, young quarterback. Drafting one is the hard part.

At this week’s NFL draft, the 32 teams in the world’s most profitable league will be searching for its most valuable commodity: a young, difference-making quarterback.

At this week’s NFL draft, the 32 teams in the world’s most profitable league will be searching for its most valuable commodity: a young, difference-making quarterback.

Talent is only part of the appeal as new draftees enter the league on bargain, cost-controlled contracts. In a league in which offenses rely heavily on passing and the highest-paid veteran quarterbacks command $60 million annually, paying a starter a fraction of that amount makes it easier to build a championship-contending roster under the salary cap.

Teams devote countless hours and resources toward what amounts to perhaps the highest-pressure job search in professional sports, all in hope of uncovering the next Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Brock Purdy, each of whom has led his team to a Super Bowl appearance while on a rookie deal since 2019. 

Yet all the investment in and spotlight on identifying a franchise’s next great quarterback don’t mean teams have gotten any better at picking them.  

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders looks to throw against BYU in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Dec. 28.Eric Gay / AP fileOf the 75 quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2000, 35 earned at least one Pro Bowl appearance. Twenty-one did it multiple times. Just six went on to start and win Super Bowls, and five have been named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. For every 2004 draft class that produced future franchise cornerstones Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, there is also a 2011, when the first round included future MVP Cam Newton but also three other quarterbacks who lasted less than 69 career games apiece.