Trump's trade war isn't over yet

Even reduced tariffs will cost American families an average of $2,800 a year, the Yale Budget Lab estimated.

The trade war is far from over, and Americans could still pay a big price, according to economists and analysts.

Even after the U.S. and China agreed to halt levies on each other for 90 days, U.S. households’ net purchasing power is still set to shrink by an average $2,800 a year, the Yale Budget Lab estimated Monday.

The researchers’ current estimate is lower than the $4,900 hit they forecast based on the state of play on April 15, but it still reflects the sting of a nearly 18% average effective tariff rate — the highest in more than 90 years.

President Donald Trump has delayed, watered down or lowered many of his severest import taxes in recent weeks. He partially walked back a slate of global duties days after unveiling it last month, offered some reprieve on his 25% auto tariffs, and temporarily slashed duties on China to 30% after hiking them 145%. The administration unveiled the outlines of a trade pact with the United Kingdom last week and said it had held “productive” talks with Beijing officials over the weekend that are set to continue.

But analysts and executives say the turmoil generated by Trump’s fast-changing trade policies has already begun hitting supply chains and rewriting corporate strategies, including on pricing. Perhaps the only major prediction economists continue to voice confidently is that consumers will see higher prices from tariffs.