Democratic performance is improving in a slew of special elections, as a weary party looks for signs of hope

Democrats have spent the first months of Donald Trump’s second administration wandering the political wilderness — facing record-low popularity while competing factions battle over how exactly to take on the president.

Democrats have spent the first months of Donald Trump’s second administration wandering the political wilderness — facing record-low popularity while competing factions battle over how exactly to take on the president.

And yet, in special election after special election so far this year, Democrats are faring miles better against Republican opponents than they did last fall in Trump’s faceoff with then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

In 16 special state legislative and congressional elections held so far this year, Democrats have bettered their margin of victory or defeat compared to the 2024 Trump-Harris battle by an average of about 11.5 points, according to data collected by the political site The Downballot. The Democrat overperformed in 14 of those 16 contests, including flipping deep-red state Senate districts in Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Those trends continued Tuesday. In Florida, though Republicans comfortably held on to two very pro-Trump House seats that were open after the president tapped their members to serve in his administration, Democrats improved on their margin of defeat in Florida’s 1st Congressional District by 22 points compared to Harris’ result there last fall, while improving by 16-points in Florida’s 6th Congressional District.

And in the high-profile Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that earned the most national attention of any of the contests held so far this year, liberal-leaning candidate Susan Crawford defeated conservative-leaning candidate Brad Schimel by 10 points, just months after Trump beat Harris by roughly a point in the presidential battleground. More than 2.36 million voters turnout out in that race, only 300,000 or so fewer than did in the 2022 midterms — a strong showing for an off-year contest.