What Tuesday's elections could reveal about 2024

Tuesday's elections in Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio and Mississippi will offer plenty of clues about the 2024 general election that’s now a year away.

Happening this Tuesday: It’s Election Day 2023 in Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio and Virginia… Donald Trump clashes with judge in civil fraud trial in New York… Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds says Trump can’t win as she endorses Ron DeSantis… And five GOP candidates qualify for Wednesday’s GOP debate in Miami.

But FIRST… Tonight’s elections across the country will offer plenty of clues about the 2024 general election that’s now a year away. 

1. Just how potent is the issue of abortion after Roe v. Wade’s overturn a year ago? We’ll find out in Ohio (with the state’s referendum that would enshrine abortion rights in the state), in Virginia (where Democrats and Republicans are fighting over the GOP’s push for a 15-week ban), and even in Kentucky (where the Dem governor has been advertising on abortion rights).

2. How strong is the power of incumbency? In Kentucky, Dem Gov. Andy Beshear has been riding on being the incumbent, vastly outspending GOP opponent Daniel Cameron over the airwaves in a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 26 points in 2020. And in Mississippi, GOP incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves has received a stronger-than-expected challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley. And remember, despite all of President Joe Biden’s political problems right now, he is the incumbent in 2024 — and that can be an advantage. 

3. Does Kentucky remain a bellwether? We’ve pointed this out before: The outcome in Kentucky’s race for governor has predicted what will happen in the upcoming presidential election. In 2011, incumbent Dem Gov. Steve Beshear (Andy’s father) won re-election, setting the stage for Barack Obama’s re-election the next year. In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin shocked the political world and all of the polling, presaging Trump’s impact the next year. And in 2019, the moderate Andy Beshear (narrowly) knocked out the unpopular Bevin from office. Sound familiar?