Could Joe Burrow really win NFL MVP? His stats say yes. Precedent doesn't.
Joe Burrow has thrown for a league-leading 4,641 yards and 42 touchdowns. But if the Bengals don't make the postseason, he likely won't win MVP.
To win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, it won’t be enough for Joe Burrow to produce league-leading statistics. Cincinnati’s quarterback would also have to do something even harder: upset decades of historical precedent.
Like Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, a two-time winner of the award, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, Burrow has produced the kind of gaudy numbers required to enter the MVP conversation. Burrow has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of his last eight games, for a total of 27 touchdowns against just five interceptions in that two-month span.
What is unusual and sets Burrow apart from his Pro Bowl peers, however, is that he has thrown for a league-leading 4,641 yards and 42 touchdowns, along with the fifth-lowest interception rate and the fifth-highest completion percentage, despite playing on a fringe playoff contender.
The Bengals started 1-4 and as recently as Dec. 1 were just 4-8. Yet after four consecutive wins they enter Saturday’s regular-season finale at Pittsburgh at 8-8, battling Denver (9-7) and Miami (8-8) for the AFC’s last, unclaimed playoff berth. Denver can earn the last spot outright with a win.
According to NBC Sports Research, O.J. Simpson in 1973 was the last player to win the MVP award but miss the playoffs. In addition, the worst record by a team with an MVP came in 1997, when Detroit went 9-7 despite the brilliance of Barry Sanders, who tied for the award with Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre.
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