Unemployment fears hit worst levels since Covid as tariffs fuel inflation outlook, Fed survey shows
Consumer worries grew over inflation, unemployment and the stock market as the global trade war heated up in March, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.
Consumer worries grew over inflation, unemployment and the stock market as the global trade war heated up in March, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.
The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents saw inflation a year from now at 3.6%, an increase of half a percentage point from February and the highest reading since October 2023.
Along with concerns over a higher cost of living came a surge in worries over the labor market: The probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now surged to 44%, a move up of 4.6 percentage points and the highest level going back to the early Covid pandemic days of April 2020.
The survey also showed angst about the uncertainty translating into problems for stock market prices.
The expectation that the market will be higher a year from low slid to 33.8%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points to the lowest reading going back to June 2022. While the expectations for equities pulled back, respondents said they figure gold to rise by 5.2%, the highest since April 2022.
Rating: 5