Will the Apple Watch Ultra make Garmin the next Nokia? - The Verge

Apple is great at software, Garmin, like Nokia, is not. Nokia was eventually sold off for parts after failing to compete with the iPhone and Android. Will Garmin suffer the same fate?

I had a funny feeling watching yesterday’s announcement of the Apple Watch Ultra: I’ve seen this show before. It wasn’t until Garmin watch fans on Reddit and Twitter started lampooning Apple that it hit me… this is Nokia all over again.

Let’s get this out of the way first: I’m a longtime Garmin watch fan. Most of my friends and family have all purchased svelte Apple Watches. It’s a great smartwatch but I wanted a great outdoor adventure and fitness watch to pair with my iPhone instead. That’s why I’ve been wearing big hulking Garmin watches like the Fenix and Epix series despite their clumsy software interfaces. I’ve used them to obsessively track and measure my performance in a variety of activities that include kitesurfing, trail running, golfing, weight training, and mountain biking.

Steve Jobs pointing out the market leaders at the launch of the iPhone in 2007.

When Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, it was met with derision by Nokia and its fans still clinging to their overwrought Symbian OS, tiny keyboards, and resistive touchscreens made of plastic. Nokia devices like the N95 were superior to the iPhone on spec sheets, but not in terms of usability. Apple’s slow-roll approach to adding new features year after year eventually allowed the company to catch up to flagship specs offered by Nokia, BlackBerry, Motorola, and Palm as each company hemorrhaged market share and revenue. The situation only accelerated with the maturation of Google’s Android OS which overtook Symbian by 2011. Nokia’s phone division was sold to Microsoft in 2014 and then unloaded for parts in 2016.

Garmin has a dizzying array of watches sold at every price point, to $1,500 and beyond.

It was this scenario I was thinking about as the Apple Watch Ultra was unveiled with a price well below the $1,000 mark many expected, and just a month after Samsung announced the $449.99 Galaxy Watch 5 Pro running Google’s much improved Wear OS 3. (Ironically, Wear OS is infused with Tizen DNA which evolved from Nokia’s own Maemo and MeeGo OSes.)

Apple already dominates the smartwatch market for devices that cost less than $500. Garmin dominates the segment above that with premium outdoor watches priced from $699 to over $1,500. Its higher average selling price is the reason it ranks third in terms of revenue despite ranking fifth in terms of device shipments, according to Counterpoint Research. That’s the opposite of the iPhone which dominates the premium end of the smartphone market. Apple is clearly hungry for a bigger slice of the premium smartwatch pie with its more lucrative profit margins.

https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/8/23342402/apple-vs-garmin-watch-user-interface

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