Chuck Todd: Prepare for lots of campaign motion — and little actual movement
If history is any guide, it’s likely we aren’t going to see any significant movement in the polls until the very last minute of the 2024 election.
For the next six months, a week won’t go by without three to five poll releases both nationally and in the battleground states. And yet, as much of a numbers junkie as I am, as much of a data nerd I proclaim to be, I’m going to do my best to take every result with a grain of salt. And if I pay attention to anything in these polls, it will be trends that continue for more than two straight polls.
Here’s why: Ultimately, this election is going to be decided by the “double-haters” — those who are sour on both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — and the unenthusiastic partisans. And if history is any guide — shoot, if all of our own lives are any guide — it’s likely we aren’t going to see any significant movement in the polls until the very last minute.
Why do I believe this? It’s basic human nature. When you don’t like doing something that you have to do, you wait until the last possible minute to do it.
We all remember the long paper from high school or college, when we hated some combination of the assignment or the class or the book we had to read but knew we had to focus on it at some point if we wanted to pass the class. Typically, those papers didn’t get done too far in advance.
For the double-haters in this election, there is no compelling reason to make a decision early. And figuring out which way these voters lean will be one of the most difficult polling challenges of 2024. Perhaps geography or age or marital status will be important clues about their ultimate vote choices. But make no mistake, this group of voters will be sitting in pollsters’ undecided column until at least October.
Rating: 5