L.A. fires are the worst-case scenario experts foresaw and feared
The Los Angeles area fires represent a worst-case scenario. But fire experts, past reports and risk assessments had all anticipated a wildfire catastrophe to some degree.
For the Los Angeles area, the recent string of wildfires represents a worst-case scenario — unusually powerful and prolonged Santa Ana winds struck after months without significant rain. But the steep consequences of the blazes are not a surprise, according to an NBC News review of after-action reports following previous fires, wildfire risk maps, public meetings about wildfire risk and interviews with fire experts.
“Entirely foreseeable,” said Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis and history at Pomona College.
The fires have forced nearly 180,000 people to evacuate, cut power to nearly half a million customers and burned thousands of homes.
“We have been building homes deep into the fire zones. We know they’re fire zones, we know they’re dangerous, and yet City Hall and county government has constantly greenlit development in places of greater and greater risks,” Miller said. “All of the factors you don’t want to see combined combined.”
The risk of wildfire to homes in Los Angeles County is higher than in 99% of counties in the United States, according to a federal analysis. Pacific Palisades, the Hollywood Hills and Altadena, three areas where blazes are burning, have “very high fire hazard severity,” according to mapping from the the Los Angeles Fire Department and the state.
Rating: 5