Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply’ amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns
The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” in the wake of U.S.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs regime.
“The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty,” the WTO said in its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report out Wednesday.
Based on the tariffs currently in place, and including a 90-day suspension of “reciprocal tariffs,” the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, before posting a “modest” recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
The decline is anticipated to be particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6% this year.
The WTO also warned that “severe downside risks exist,” including the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and a broader spillover of policy uncertainty, “which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global goods trade,” particularly hurting export-oriented, least-developed countries.
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