The John McCain trap looms for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire
Haley's rise among independents could make Trump sweat in New Hampshire, but McCain's 2000 campaign shows an insurgent Republican needs to build beyond that.
The prohibitive favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination looks to be on the verge of victory in Iowa and leads by wide margins in national polls and in other key states — except for one: New Hampshire, where one challenger has been gaining steam in recent polls, raising the possibility the Granite State may turn a coronation into a genuine competition.
If it sounds like a description of the current GOP proceedings, well, it is. But it was also the set-up more than two decades ago for a Republican primary season that could offer a useful lens through which to view the current race.
There are, obviously, glaring differences in tone and substance between George W. Bush and Donald Trump. But the trajectory of Bush’s candidacy in the lead-up to the 2000 primary season is practically identical to Trump’s this time around. The then-Texas governor spent 1999 building a staggering advantage in national polling, racking up endorsements and intimidating multiple rivals out of the race before the first votes were cast.
Trump’s 2023 proceeded similarly. In fact, Trump is the first nonincumbent Republican presidential candidate since Bush to enter an election year averaging over 50 percent support in national polling. And he’s also the first since Bush to enjoy an average lead of more than 20 points in Iowa this close to the caucuses.
In Bush’s case, he had little trouble living up to the hype in Iowa, winning 41 percent of the caucus vote — the highest share ever for a nonincumbent, and also a number that Trump has been surpassing in recent polling. Bush easily defeated his main threat in the state, Steve Forbes, by 11 points. Forbes, not unlike Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis currently, had practically staked his campaign on the Hawkeye State, tacking to the right with an emphasis on cultural issues. His caucus showing was respectable, but hardly the campaign-altering upset he’d been banking on. Forbes trucked on through New Hampshire, but he finished as an afterthought there before dropping out.
Rating: 5