The six types of races that will decide control of the House in 2022
Whether Republicans or Democrats control the House after the November 2022 midterm elections will come down to six types of competitive races.
Republicans need to pick up at least five seats to take back the House in the midterm elections, and three structural advantages have made them favorites all along: redistricting, Democratic retirements and candidate recruitment.
But as the abortion issue and a renewed focus on former President Donald Trump have awakened and energized Democratic voters, the fight for the House has become increasingly competitive.
Those structural factors once looked like a small component of potential big gains for the GOP in a “red wave” scenario. Now, they look like a valuable insurance policy for Republicans in a fluid political environment, without which House control might be a toss-up.
Midterms countdown: New NBC News poll shows Democrats and Republicans tied for control of CongressSept. 19, 202202:08Republicans’ structural edgeThe post-2020 census redistricting process was akin to asymmetrical warfare: Republicans held the power to gerrymander far more states than Democrats.
Thanks to reforms passed by voters, many heavily blue states employed bipartisan redistricting commissions that produced neutral or only marginally Democratic-leaning political maps — including in California, Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia and Washington. And state courts in Maryland and New York struck down Democratic legislatures’ attempted gerrymanders.
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